I’m on the Under 9.5 runs in this Brewers @ Reds game for these reasons:

- I see both pitchers having a good showing here based off their résumé’s vs each others batting rotations. Aaron Civale and Brady Singer are two seasoned pitchers and though Singer has the tougher matchup, he has the more trustworthy arm to keep the bats managed well enough to give his team a chance to win (as they are the favored ones) and if the reds win, it’s because they slowed down the heater that the Brewers are on.

- Civale has a good record vs the Reds. He’s 2-0, and has only allowed 3 runs in the 2 outings he’s had in his career vs them. He’s pitched 6 inning or more in those starts, and though he’s had a rough start to the season on the road, he’s better in night games and should showcase his talents well against a poor hitting team like the Reds.

- Brady Singer vs the Brewers over the course of his career has been good. The brewers best batters are lefties and he is only allowing .235 to left handed swingers, not to forget to mention that he’s 3-1 at home this season with a 3.29 ERA.

- It’s a trap line for the over tonight. I think it’s high because of Civales recent blunders and though it’s reasonable, it’s a betting line set from recency bias. Gotta fade that.

- I’m side betting the Brewers to win. It’s a great price to take on a team that has been red hot at the plate, so even if it’s low scoring as I see it to be, it’ll come down to the late innings where I think the Brewers will be the first and last to score runs.

Offial Play: Under 9.5 runs

Side Bet: Brewers Moneyline

Hail Mary: Aaron Civale over 15.5 outs