The Cowboys made a statement last weekend against a Browns defense that was elite last season, and I expect them to continue to trend up this week. The Saints looked great against an awful Panthers team, so I feel they're getting too much respect with this line. Their offensive line (31st in Pro Football Focus' o-line ranking) isn't capable of holding up to the pressure Dallas will bring with Micah Parson and company.

Dallas won six of its eight home games by at least 20 points last season, with three road wins of at least 20 points. This is going to be an easy winner at -6 but I would recommend looking at alternate lines for more value as well.