Betting Trend: The under is 9-3 in the Nittany Lions' last 12 games, including 6-1 in their last seven (+5.70 units/43% ROI).

I expect the under to cash in a Penn State cover, as it did when the Boilermakers lost 45-0 to Ohio State.

The Nittany Lions run the football on 57.8 percent of their plays, the 28th-highest run rate in the nation. They also rank 115th in the nation in tempo this season. While Nicholas Singleton's potential absence could limit their rushing explosiveness, the bell-cow Kaytron Allen will be comfortable taking the rock and methodically breaking down the Purdue defense. I expect PSU to win big by storming out to an early lead, coasting in the second half to run the game clock and move on to next week's game versus Minnesota.

On the other side of the ball, Purdue is unlikely to gain much traction against the Penn State front. On top of that, if the Nittany Lions happen to get out to a slow start, the Boilermakers are likely to run the football on offense to shorten the game and keep the score close for as long as possible. They, too, prefer to run the football (61st in run rate) and are slow-paced (102nd in tempo).

I expect Penn State to cover this large spread, but that doesn't require the total to surpass 51 points.