#752 ASA FREE PLAY ON Troy -1 or Pick over Southern Miss, Thursday at 7 PM ET - There is a reason that Troy with a 13-10 overall record is favored over Southern Miss with a 19-4 overall record. First off, the Trojans have played the much tougher schedule both overall in an CUSA play. They are also 7-2 at home this season with their 2 losses coming by 2 points in OT and by 3 points. The Trojans average winning margin at home this season is 86-64. USM comes in overvalued having won 5 straight games including their last 4 wins coming at home. They haven’t been on the road since mid January and the Golden Eagles are 2-2 on the road in CUSA play with their 2 road wins coming vs Arkansas St and UL Monroe, the 2 lowest rated teams in the conference. Troy’s defense is superior to USM’s ranking 1st in the conference (league games) in adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense. These 2 already met this season and USM was a 3.5 point home favorite and won the game 64-60. Now we are getting Troy as a very small home favorite in revenge mode and they’ve lost 4 of their last 5 games (3 of those 4 losses on the road and their home loss in OT) so this is a must win at home. These 2 teams have met 5 times and the host has won 4 of those games. Troy has won 17 of their 22 home games since the start of last season and we look for another “W” tonight. Take Troy.