Sure on paper this looks like an epic pitching mismatch with Madison Bumgarner opposing Jhoulys Chacin.

But perception doesn't fit reality here.

Bumgarner hasn't pitched in three months. This is his first big league start since he sprained his left shoulder after a motorcycle mishap on April 20. Bumgarner is likely to be rusty and could be on a pitch count. It's a leap of faith to expect him to be in top form.

Even when he was healthy, Bumgarner has struggled against the Padres with a 4.73 ERA in his last four starts against them.

The Giants have the second-worst record in the majors in back of only the Phillies. They also have lost nine of Bumgarner's last 13 road starts.

Chacin has been the nuts at Petco Park with a 1.68 ERA in nine starts at home this season. Chacin has yielded fewer than three earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts and is in excellent form with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts.

The Padres have proven tough against the Giants winning 12 of the past 17 meetings.