On the surface this total may look right in a pitching matchup of Mitch Keller versus Jose Urena. But on closer inspection, the total is too high.

Keller has a 4.88 ERA. But he's taken major steps this summer to becoming a respectable starter. Keller has held seven of his last nine opponents to three earned runs or fewer. He's off his best start of the year holding the Marlins to one run in seven innings this past Monday.

Urena doesn't get any marketplace respect. Yet he has a 3.00 ERA and is 2-for-2 in quality starts for the Rockies since coming up from the minors earlier this month. Urena is facing one of the weakest attacks in the majors. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in runs and is 29th in batting. The Pirates have scored four or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games.

The weather and home plate umpire are pluses, too, for the Under. The wind will be blowing in at 7-to-10 mph. Charlie Ramos is slated to be the home plate umpire. This is his first full year in the majors. The Under has cashed eight of 12 times when Ramos has been behind the plate.