Total: 60.50 | -102.00 Under
Ball State has gone over the total in seven of its last nine Mid-American Conference games. The Cardinals are giving up an average of 32.3 points during their last six games. Their secondary is extremely banged-up, especially after losing their top cornerback, Eric Patterson, last week. The Cardinals are forced to rotate three young cornerbacks.
This sets up a nightmare matchup for the Cardinals facing UMass quarterback Blake Frohnapfel, a transfer from Marshall who has thrived under quarterback guru Mark Whipple's pro-style offense. Frohnapfel not only has a strong arm, but touch to go with it. He has probably the best receiver in the MAC to throw to in Tajae Sharpe.
Whipple has turned around UMass. The Minutemen faced a brutal non-league slate playing teams from the ACC, Pac-12, SEC and Big Ten in their first four games. Since then they've played five MAC schools and Frohnapfel has averaged 408 yards passing per game with a 17-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's thrown for 55.3 yards per game more than any other quarterback in the MAC on the season. Sharpe and Jean Sifrin provide Frohnapfel with a pair of tall, dangerous targets. They should light up Ball State's vulnerable secondary especially having an 18-day layoff to rest and prepare.
The Minutemen, though, can't stop anybody on defense. They rank 108th in both points allowed giving up 35 per game and yards allowed permitting 458.3 per contest. UMass is surrendering more than 200 yards per game on the ground.
Ball State lost a lot of its firepower from last season, but still has an excellent running back in Jahwan Edwards. He's rushed for 48 touchdowns in his career and has accounted for more than 1,100 yards rushing and receiving this year.
The game is being played in Foxboro, home of the Patriots where the weather can get tricky. But the forecast is for temperatures in the 40s with no rain and little wind.