PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's Tuesday Over/Under Destroyer
(NBA) LA Lakers vs. Detroit,
12/02/2014 2:30 PM, Score: 106 - 96
Total: 205.00 | -110.00 Under
Result: Loss
Total: 205.00 | -110.00 Under
Result: Loss
Scoring isn't a problem for the Lakers. The Lakers average better than 104 points per game and that number should increase with sharpshooter Nick Young back in sync after being out.
Defense is a problem for LA. The Lakers surrender 112 points per game, highest in the league. They also are second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage and give up the third most points in the paint.
That's huge for this matchup because Detroit likes to pound away inside with Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe. The problem for Detroit is Drummond and Monroe are having terrible shooting seasons so far as is Josh Smith.
Drummond is making just 44.8 percent of his field goals. That number should start to rise, though, beginning with this game as Drummond has shot 60.8 percent and 62.3 percent, respectively, during his first two years in the NBA. Monroe is hitting 48.6 percent of his shots from the floor down from his career 50 percent mark. Smith always has been a bad shooter, but he managed to make 41.9 percent of his field goals last season. This season, Smith is making only 37.7 percent of his shots from the field.
Some of this has to do with the competition. Detroit has played eight opponents ranked in the Top 11 in defense during its last 13 games. The Lakers are a monster drop from those teams.
The Pistons have been a much better over team at home where the over has cashed 67 percent the past 52 times. The Lakers have gone over in six of their last seven road games and 68 percent during their last 22 matchups versus Eastern Conference foes.
Celtics plus 6 1/2 at Hawks
Boston has been bad at home, but sports a winning ATS road record. The spot and matchup set up well for the Celtics to keep this game extremely competitive.
The Hawks rolled past Charlotte, 105-75, at home this past Saturday. Atlanta had a revenge motive in that matchup after falling to the Hornets in triple overtime on Nov. 7. The Hawks have an important Southeast Division road matchup on Wednesday against Miami. So this matchup is a letdown spot for them.
The Hawks have covered less than 20 percent the past 31 times when playing on two day's rest. This angle has merit because it falls squarely during the two-year coaching reign of Mike Budenholzer.
Speaking of Budenholzer, he was an assistant coach to Gregg Popovich and the Spurs before taking the Hawks job. The Hawks are very similar to the Spurs in the plays and offense they run. The Celtics just faced the Spurs this past Sunday at home. So they should be well prepared. Note, too, that Budenholzer was not at practice on Tuesday because of illness.
The Celtics got buried against the Spurs, but the Hawks are several tiers lower than the Spurs. The Celtics match up much better to Atlanta because they are competitive size-wise and can compete on the boards. The Hawks rank 27th in rebounds per game.
Boston has dropped four in a row. Those defeats, however, came to the Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Bulls with Derrick Rose and Spurs. Those teams are all better than Atlanta.
Defense is a problem for LA. The Lakers surrender 112 points per game, highest in the league. They also are second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage and give up the third most points in the paint.
That's huge for this matchup because Detroit likes to pound away inside with Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe. The problem for Detroit is Drummond and Monroe are having terrible shooting seasons so far as is Josh Smith.
Drummond is making just 44.8 percent of his field goals. That number should start to rise, though, beginning with this game as Drummond has shot 60.8 percent and 62.3 percent, respectively, during his first two years in the NBA. Monroe is hitting 48.6 percent of his shots from the floor down from his career 50 percent mark. Smith always has been a bad shooter, but he managed to make 41.9 percent of his field goals last season. This season, Smith is making only 37.7 percent of his shots from the field.
Some of this has to do with the competition. Detroit has played eight opponents ranked in the Top 11 in defense during its last 13 games. The Lakers are a monster drop from those teams.
The Pistons have been a much better over team at home where the over has cashed 67 percent the past 52 times. The Lakers have gone over in six of their last seven road games and 68 percent during their last 22 matchups versus Eastern Conference foes.
Celtics plus 6 1/2 at Hawks
Boston has been bad at home, but sports a winning ATS road record. The spot and matchup set up well for the Celtics to keep this game extremely competitive.
The Hawks rolled past Charlotte, 105-75, at home this past Saturday. Atlanta had a revenge motive in that matchup after falling to the Hornets in triple overtime on Nov. 7. The Hawks have an important Southeast Division road matchup on Wednesday against Miami. So this matchup is a letdown spot for them.
The Hawks have covered less than 20 percent the past 31 times when playing on two day's rest. This angle has merit because it falls squarely during the two-year coaching reign of Mike Budenholzer.
Speaking of Budenholzer, he was an assistant coach to Gregg Popovich and the Spurs before taking the Hawks job. The Hawks are very similar to the Spurs in the plays and offense they run. The Celtics just faced the Spurs this past Sunday at home. So they should be well prepared. Note, too, that Budenholzer was not at practice on Tuesday because of illness.
The Celtics got buried against the Spurs, but the Hawks are several tiers lower than the Spurs. The Celtics match up much better to Atlanta because they are competitive size-wise and can compete on the boards. The Hawks rank 27th in rebounds per game.
Boston has dropped four in a row. Those defeats, however, came to the Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Bulls with Derrick Rose and Spurs. Those teams are all better than Atlanta.
