PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's AFC Game of the Year
(NFL) Indianapolis vs. Denver,
01/11/2015 11:40 AM, Score: 24 - 13
Point Spread: -7.00 | -105.00 Denver (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: -7.00 | -105.00 Denver (Home)
Result: Loss
The Broncos rate a level higher than the Colts. Throw in a rested, home-field advantage and I see Denver winning this game by double-digits.
The Colts just have too many weaknesses that the magnificent Andrew Luck can't cover up.
Denver ranks No. 3 in total defense. The Colts are 19th in total defense, giving up 37 more yards per game than Denver despite playing an easier schedule. The Colts won 11 games during the regular season with eight of those victories coming against the Texans, Titans, Jaguars, Redskins and Giants. The combined winning percentage of those teams was 30 percent.
The Colts are not a strong road team just 14-12 SU and ATS during the three-year era of Chuck Pagano and Luck. They are 0-2 in the playoffs and lost on the road this season to the Broncos, Steelers and Cowboys by an average of 15.3 points.
Peyton Manning couldn't match his record 55 touchdowns and 5,477 yards thrown last season. But his 39 touchdown throws this season was one fewer than Luck's league-leading total and he had only 34 fewer passing yards than Luck.
Manning should be much sharper than he has been, too, with an extra week of rest and preparation. Unlike last season, the Broncos have a power ground game to take some of the load off Manning. C.J. Anderson emerged to score eight touchdowns and average 108 yards rushing per game during the last six games.
Denver also has a stronger defense than last season when it reached the Super Bowl. The Colts have gone as far as they can go with a makeshift offensive line, no ground attack and sloppy ball-handling, which has resulted in 17 turnovers during the past seven games.
The Colts aren't playing Andy Dalton here, or any of their AFC South Division patsies. This is a real step-up situation and aside from Luck the Colts don't have the necessary ground game and defense to pass the test.
The Colts just have too many weaknesses that the magnificent Andrew Luck can't cover up.
Denver ranks No. 3 in total defense. The Colts are 19th in total defense, giving up 37 more yards per game than Denver despite playing an easier schedule. The Colts won 11 games during the regular season with eight of those victories coming against the Texans, Titans, Jaguars, Redskins and Giants. The combined winning percentage of those teams was 30 percent.
The Colts are not a strong road team just 14-12 SU and ATS during the three-year era of Chuck Pagano and Luck. They are 0-2 in the playoffs and lost on the road this season to the Broncos, Steelers and Cowboys by an average of 15.3 points.
Peyton Manning couldn't match his record 55 touchdowns and 5,477 yards thrown last season. But his 39 touchdown throws this season was one fewer than Luck's league-leading total and he had only 34 fewer passing yards than Luck.
Manning should be much sharper than he has been, too, with an extra week of rest and preparation. Unlike last season, the Broncos have a power ground game to take some of the load off Manning. C.J. Anderson emerged to score eight touchdowns and average 108 yards rushing per game during the last six games.
Denver also has a stronger defense than last season when it reached the Super Bowl. The Colts have gone as far as they can go with a makeshift offensive line, no ground attack and sloppy ball-handling, which has resulted in 17 turnovers during the past seven games.
The Colts aren't playing Andy Dalton here, or any of their AFC South Division patsies. This is a real step-up situation and aside from Luck the Colts don't have the necessary ground game and defense to pass the test.
