Point Spread: -7.00 | -105.00 Denver (Home)
Last season was tough for the Nuggets, who were hit hard by injuries. There is reason to be optimistic coming into this year though, with Arron Afflalo coming over from Orlando, and Danillo Gallinari back and healthy. Their 2-6 record in the pre-season doesn't look very impressive, but the one thing that I noticed about that, was that only one of those games was played at the Pepsi Center. That was a 114-101 win over Oklahoma City.
While it wasn't the case last year, Denver's home court advantage at the Pepsi Center has been undeniable in recent years. In 2013 the Nuggets won 38-of-41 home games, more than the Heat, Spurs, Thunder or Clippers. They might struggle to win 38 games in Denver this year, but I certainly expect an improvement from last season.
The Kings are in Denver tonight, and the Nuggets are catching them at the right time. Sacramento is off to a great start, but coming off an upset win over the Clippers last night, has them playing on the road on back to back nights. The high elevation of Mile High City is often a problem for visiting clubs, but perhaps even more so when playing on no rest.
The Kings are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 versus the Nuggets, while Denver has covered in seven of it's last 10 home games. This a let down spot for the visitors, and an ideal situation to back a strong home team as a medium sized favorite.