(NBA) Milwaukee vs. Indiana, 04/28/2024 7:00 PM, Score: 113 - 126
Total: 216.00 | -109.00 Over
Result: Win
This is a 5* play on Over.

I had the over in Game 2, and here is what I said before the game:

“Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.”

I think Game 1 was an anomaly, and we should see high scores in this series moving forward. The Pacers scored 67 points in the first half of Game 3, and the injury to Damian Lillard should not slow them down here in Game 4. Keep in mind that while 222 points were scored in regulation in Game 3, Siakam, Haliburton and Nesmith all struggled shooting the ball. Perhaps some positive regression here.


Jesse Schule