I think we’re in store for a pretty low-scoring affair tonight as two of the best Mountain West teams hook it up. San Diego State is hosting Utah State. SDSU has won eight of nine to surge into first place. They are deserved favorites here, but are also just 1-7 ATS at home this season.

Utah State has won six of eight, but has failed to cover three straight. On paper, the Aggies look to have the offensive edge in this matchup, but SDSU is holding teams to 60.9 points/game when here at home.

This is a high total for a game involving San Diego State. Only twice this season have they seen a higher O/U line. Both of those games stayed Under.

Even for Utah State, the number looks high. Only two of their last six games have seen a higher O/U line and one of those stayed Under.

A recent rash of Overs from both sides has clearly inflated this number. No San Diego State home game has had a total close in the 140 to 144.5 range while the same is true for Utah State road games. Take the Under. 10*