8* Under Mavs/Bucks (7:35 ET): These teams have “taken turns” leading the league in offensive efficiency the past two seasons (Bucks in 2018-19, Mavs in 2019-20) with the Bucks back on top so far this season. But I’m anticipating this Friday night ESPN matchup to be a bit more low-scoring than you might think. I just won with the Under on Milwaukee’s last game, a 110-101 win over the Pistons. They’ve now gone Under in three straight, allowing an average of just 96.7 PPG during that time. Dallas is tied with the Lakers for #1 in defensive efficiency while the Bucks aren’t far behind at #4 in that department.

The Mavs come into tonight on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak, which has seen them defeat Houston, Denver, Orlando and Charlotte. In each of the last two games, they’ve held the opposition below 100 points and both those games stayed Under. The Under is 7-3 in all Mavs’ games this season, which have averaged “only” 213.8 PPG or well below the O/U for tonight’s matchup. On Wednesday, they held Charlotte to only 93 points on 38% shooting, including 10 of 38 from three-point range.

Milwaukee once again looks like the best team in the league as they have the best point differential and net efficiency rating. Winners of six of their last seven, the Bucks are right near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, a place we all thought they’d be. They get a break here in that Dallas is a bit short-handed right now. Having held their previous five opponents to 42.8% shooting, it’s not as if the Bucks really need much of a break. Dallas is 5-2 Under its last seven tries as an underdog and I happen to think this O/U has been set too high. 8* Under Mavs/Bucks