(MLB) Tampa Bay vs. Cleveland, 07/22/2021 7:10 PM, Score: 5 - 4
Point Spread: 1.50 | -130.00 Cleveland (Home)
Result: Win
8* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line selection where I am taking the Indians +1.5. They have revenge for a prior three-game sweep, which was in Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Since being swept in Tropicana Field, things have gotten better with the Tribe winning six of nine including a sweep of the Royals in their lone home series. They also beat the Astros yesterday 5-4. Two of the Indians’ last three losses have been by one run. I really like the RL in this series opener.

The Rays, who have also won six of their last nine games, can usually count on solid starting pitching. But I don’t believe that will be the case here tonight as they send Luis Patino to the bump. Patino will be making just his fifth start of 2021 here and second since May. He was recalled from Triple-A Durham despite giving up seven runs in his last start here in the big leagues. That was 7/2 vs. Toronto, a game the Rays lost 11-1. It should be noted they were also close to losing yesterday (at home vs. Baltimore) before a two-run rally in the bottom of the ninth. They were down to their last out.

So you’ve got a situation where both teams are coming off one-run victories (same exact score too!). Tampa Bay has been in 27 one-run games this year while Cleveland has been in 28. The only other AL team with more one-run decisions this year is Oakland (30). Cal Quantrill led a one-run win (3-2) for the Indians in his last start as he gave up only one run in five innings. It was his second consecutive victory. The Rays have lost four in a row as road favorites and I don’t see the home team doing any worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Cleveland