10* Oakland (10:10 ET): If you’re a regular client, then you know that Seattle is a team I just do not believe in. While only 3.5 games off the pace for the Wild Card in the American League, the Mariners’ 51-45 WL record is really as phony as it gets. They’ve been outscored by 52 runs this season, which would give them a “win expectancy” of 42. The nine-game difference between actual and “expected” wins is - by far - the largest in all of MLB right now. They’ve been propped up not only by a 20-8 record in one-run games, but a 9-1 record in extra innings. I believe this team is going to regress badly over the next couple months.

The situation for Oakland here is good. They had Wednesday off. Seattle did not as they wrapped up a two-game series in Colorado with a 6-3 loss. The A’s have won their L2 games, both against the Angels. It was a 6-0 win on Tuesday, good news because they are 5-1 this season coming off a shutout win. Today they hand the ball to Sean Manaea, who threw a CG shutout here in Seattle back on June 2nd (allowed just four hits). Manaea has a 12-7 TSR this year and 3.20 ERA on the road.

The Mariners are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. They are dead last in team batting average and OBP plus 28th in OPS. At home, their BA drops to .203! How they have managed to go 29-20 at home with that kind of average is mind-boggling. I know today’s starter Chris Flexen has pitched pretty well at home this year, but he did not fare well here against the A’s back on June 2nd (same game Manaea tossed the CG shutout) as he allowed five runs. Oakland is 12-3 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 and I really like them in this matchup. 10* Oakland