10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Despite the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr (out for the rest of the season), Atlanta is not throwing in the towel in the NL East. Winners of this division each of the last three seasons, the Braves have the division’s best run differential (+30) and sit just four games back of the first place Mets. They are tied with the Phillies, who they just beat 7-2 on Thursday. Clearly, the deciding factor in last night’s game was a Darby Swanson grand slam in the third inning. The teams actually finished with the same number of hits (7). The Phillies have now lost three in a row after starting July on a 10-4 run.

I expect the Phils to bounce back on Friday though, mainly because they’ll have Zack Wheeler on the mound. Wheeler has easily been the team’s most consistent starter in 2021 w/ a 2.43 ERA and 0.995 WHIP. Now he has allowed a total of 11 runs in his last two starts. But prior to that, he’d allowed 3 ER or less in 15 of 17 starts. Wheeler has allowed only 4 HR’s over the previous three months, so the Acuna-less Braves offense won’t be having nearly the same success they did yesterday. For the season, Atlanta averages only 4.0 runs per game on the road compared to 5.3 at home.

Over the last three games, Philly is a hideous 5 of 32 with RISP. That’s got to improve. Even with the loss y’day, the team is still 27-18 at home this season. They are one of ten teams with a win percentage of .600 or better at home. The hitting should get back on track today against Max Fried, who is not having the same kind of season Wheeler is. Fried’s first start after the All Star Break was impressive (seven shutout innings), but that was at home. On the road, he has a 6.43 ERA and 1.714 WHIP. The Phillies have had only one losing streak of more than three games all season (it was four) and that was in mid-May. 10* Philadelphia