10* LA Dodgers (9:07 ET): The Dodgers are simply better than the Giants. I’m sure that doesn’t sit well with those in the Bay Area, but let’s look at the facts. The Dodgers had a better run differential in the regular season (+269 to +210) and - despite being shut out TWICE - they have outscored the Giants in this series 16-9. It’s been an incredible season for SF as they exceeded their regular season win projection by 30+ games and turned a massive profit at the betting window (+46.9 units). But I’ve got them rated as the #2 team. They got dealt a “tough hand,” having to face the #1 team in the LDS.

For this winner take all Game 5, both teams are sending out their most profitable starter. For the Giants, that’s Logan Webb, who has a 22-5 team start record including 13-0 at home. The fact Webb is unbeaten at home this season and threw 7 ⅔ shutout innings in Game 1 will make him a tough “fade” in the eyes of most. But I just cannot see him beating the Dodgers again. Webb has a 4-0 TSR in ‘21 vs. LA, though twice he did not factor into the decision. The Dodgers led the NL in runs scored this year. They are due to break through against Webb.

Making me feel MUCH better about fading Webb is the fact the Dodgers are giving the baseball to Julio Urias. MLB’s only 20-game winner, Urias has a 27-6 TSR and the team has won the last 12 times he’s been on the mound! The Dodgers haven’t just scored more runs than the Giants this season, they’ve also allowed less. Incredibly, they have outscored opponents on the road by 1.6 rpg. This is a club that’s been a ML dog in two games all year. It’s not often you get the best team in baseball at this price. You have to take them. 10* LA Dodgers