(MLB) Miami vs. Arizona, 05/11/2022 3:40 PM, Score: 11 - 3
Money Line: -110.00 Miami (Away)
Result: Win
10* Miami (3:40 ET): While I’m 2 for 2 in the Guardians-White Sox series this week (with a win on each team), I’m 0 for 2 in this Marlins-D’Backs series, losing with the road team both times. My rationale for backing Miami in the first two games was that a) they had revenge for a prior sweep against Arizona and b) they are far better than their record indicates as a MLB-high 10 one-run losses clouds the fact the Marlins have outscored the opposition this year. Arizona, even after winning 9 of its last 11 games (including 9-3 last night) still is sporting a negative run differential on the young season. I’ll try with Miami one more time in the series finale Weds afternoon.

Yesterday was not only Miami’s worst loss since April 16th, but also the first time they lost a game by more than one run going back to May 1st. Their previous four losses to the D’backs had all been by one run as had their previous six losses overall. The Marlins even opened the scoring last night, getting two runs in the top of the first on a Jose Soler home run. But they wouldn’t score again until the ninth and by that point, it was “all over but the shouting.” Starter Jesus Luzardo was not good yday, but I am expecting a better outing from today’s starter, Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed 2 ER or less in five of his six starts thus far.

Arizona had the worst record in the National League last season, but has gotten shockingly great pitching the last two weeks or so. Three starters have ERAs below 2.00 and one of them - Merrill Kelly - goes this afternoon. Like Alcantara, Kelly did NOT pitch in the previous series between these teams. Kelly came one out shy of a complete game his last time out (vs. Colorado) where he gave up just one run. But I simply think he and his team are “due” to drop one today. As a team, the D’backs are hitting just .185 at home this year! 10* Miami