(NBA) Miami vs. Philadelphia, 05/12/2022 7:00 PM, Score: 99 - 90
Total: 207.00 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
10* Under Heat/76ers (7:05 ET): It’s do or die tonight for the 76ers, who are facing elimination after being blown out of the water Tuesday in Miami. They lost 120-85, shooting only 36.5% overall and 28.1% from three-point range. I made a terrible call taking the Sixers plus the points in that game, but will look to atone for it here by playing the Under. Yes, you should obviously expect Philadelphia to shoot better than it did in Game 5. But the road team has shot poorly in all five games in this series, so look for Miami to regress from its 53.6% shooting (13 of 33 from three) in the last game.

In Games 3 and 4 here in Philadelphia, the Heat went a combined 14 of 65 from three-point range. That’s 21.5%. One of the games saw them finish with only 79 points as a team. Other than Jimmy Butler, no Miami player has been a factor offensively here in the city of Brotherly Love. Butler’s teammates combined to go just 25 of 62 (40%) in Game 4. In Game 3, they totaled only 46 points! Miami will be without Kyle Lowry again tonight.

Miami’s defense, as expected, has been outstanding in this series. For the playoffs, the Heat are allowing just 98.2 PPG and the Under is 7-2. They’ve held the Sixers below 100 points in three of the five games, including twice since Joel Embiid has returned. Aside from Game 4, James Harden has been subpar, scoring 20 pts or less in the other four games. Philly has now been held below 100 in four of its last seven games. While it’s never happened in consecutive games, tonight may break that pattern. 10* Under Heat/76ers