10* Tampa Bay (3:07 ET): The Rays lost yesterday, 4-1, but that was with a pretty significant disadvantage on the mound as they sent out an “opener” (Matt Wisler) while the Blue Jays had Yusei Kikuchi going. This afternoon, the script has been flipped as Corey Kluber will toe the rubber for the Rays opposite Jose Berrios. The latter has struggled mightily with a 6.43 xERA, second highest among all qualifiers. Meanwhile, Kluber has been pretty solid of late, giving up 3 ER or less in eight straight starts. This is a great value on TB we’re getting here.

The Rays have lost 10 of 15, but nine of those losses have come by one run. Speaking of one-run games, Toronto has a MLB-best 18 one-run victories, which is part of the reason they currently find themselves in second in the loaded AL East. But there’s really not a ton of difference between these two teams, only that the Blue Jays have been able to win a few more close ones.

Berrios has a 6-0 team start record at home, but that’s pretty much the lone positive about his season. His ERA should be even higher and sure enough regression has begun to set in, as the L3 starts from Berrios have seen him post an 11.19 ERA. He’s allowed 14 runs in his L2 starts, which have seen him last just 6 ⅔ innings. Berrios is also giving up plenty of home runs, seven over his last three starts. Kluber has allowed only nine homers all season. In five career starts vs. Tampa Bay, Berrios is 0-3 with a 5.76 ERA. Kluber is better and the Rays also have the edge in the bullpen. 10* Tampa Bay