8* Washington (6:05 ET): In the past, I’ve stated that the Marlins are better than their record, but this is a spot for the Fish. While they did win their last game, before that it was four losses in five games and none of those saw the team score more than three runs. They are likely to struggle again here facing Nationals’ righty Josiah Gray, who is long overdue to get back in the win column. The Nats have lost each of Gray’s last three starts, but he hasn’t factored into any of the decisions. In fact, he has a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP during that stretch, allowing two runs and 11 hits in 18 innings of work.

I fully expect Gray to handle the Marlins’ lineup on Friday as they are hitting just .228 on the road this season. Now we turn to the Washington offense, which did score seven runs in a loss Wednesday. That result ended a three-game win streak, but the team is still 6-3 its last nine games. They’ll see southpaw Trevor Rogers today. Rogers has been ineffective, posting a 6.92 ERA and 2.00 ERA in his last three starts. He is 2-0 vs. Washington this season, but his TSR is 2-10 against everyone else, so I think the “third time should be the charm” for the Nationals tonight, in terms of facing Rogers.

This is also a revenge game for the home team, who was swept down in Miami last month. They are just 1-8 vs. the Marlins in ‘22, but three of the losses have been by one run and Miami has topped five runs in only three of those games. If Washington can bring the offense tonight, and I believe they will, then this should be an easy win for the home team. Gray did not allow a run in five innings the last time he faced the Marlins. 8* Washington