Major
(MLB) Colorado vs. LA Dodgers,
Money Line: 202.00 Colorado (Away)
Result: Loss
Going against home favorites of 150 or more with a starting pitcher who gave up two or fewer runs in each of his last two outings against starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or higher last five starts is +121.3 units.

It is a great regression to the mean angle and exploits over and overrated pitchers when they are ready to crest to their level.