When a team is much worse (11 or more points net difference) in margin of cover after at least five games they are 268-197-8 and that favors Miami. In fact, the same angle applied to New Orleans Thurday. Even better on road 134-89-4 for 60.1 percent

Time and time I have told you again that rest benefits teams that need to make adjustments (though hurts teams playing well). Keep in mind this truly is a Godsend in NBA, so get ready to exploit it a lot soon.

We have an angle that applies here that basically says bad teams in losing streak off bye are 54-31 against the spread.

Another angle that applies in every sport is that there is usually a short-term spike when struggling teams change coaches in midseason. That of course applies to the Fins.