Cincinnati comes into this game 9-3 in their last 12 games. 2 of those 3 losses were 1 run losses. Cincinnati is 5-1 against the Cubs this season including 4-0 in Chicago. Cincinnati has scored at least 5 runs in all 6 games.

Cincinnati is starting Ben Lively in this game. Lively has given up 2 or fewer runs in 5 of his last 6 starts the one start he allowed more was 3 runs to Arizona which was a game Cincinnati won 9-6. Lively has won 3 of his last 6 starts with all 3 losses being to Milwaukee a team that Cincinnati struggles with. Lively gave up a combined 4 runs over those 3 starts against Milwaukee.

Chicago comes into this game off back to back losses after a 8 game winning streak. Chicago had won those games against 3 teams outside of a playoff spot.

Chicago is starting Justin Steele in this game. Steele is off back to back wins against St. Louis a team that has underperformed this year. Steele allowed 10 hits and 6 runs in his start before the two games against St. Louis in a loss to Boston. Steele faced Cincinnati once this year he went 3.2 innings allowing 10 hits and 6 runs in Chicago which resulted in a 9-0 Cincinnati win.

Cincinnati is just too big of a dog in this spot there is a ton of value on the road dog in this game.

Pick: Cincinnati Reds ML