New Mexico State is coming into this game with a 10-3 record this season and they have been playing very well all season under Jerry Kill as he has turned this program around from where they were 2 years ago. They have won their last 8 straight games to end the regular season and their only conference loss all year was on the road against Liberty, losing 33-17. That loss came all the way back in September when New Mexico State was not quite hitting their stride yet but things really turned around for them after their trip back from Hawaii. Their defense has been keeping teams off the board recently as they have allowed just 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 as well as 6 of their last 8 games, including their last 2 straight as well. They are going up against a Liberty team that is 12-0 this season and has also been playing very well all year but they have not been as good recently. They won their last 2 games to end the season, scoring at least 42 points in each, but they also allowed at least 25 points in each game and they were playing against UTEP and UMass who have both had awful seasons. Defense has been a big issue for Liberty recently as well as they have allowed at least 25 points in 5 of their last 6 games as well and their schedule was not that difficult. New Mexico State has been playing at a much higher level since these two teams last met and specifically the defense has been much better for New Mexico State which is what is going to help them pull off the upset in this game. New Mexico State will cover the spread here.