The Reds are coming into this game with a 35-38 record this season and they are coming off of a 2-1 win against the Pirates, but they have not been great recently as they have still lost 3 of their last 4 games. They are going up against a Pirates team that is also 35-38 this season, but they have been playing better recently as they have won 2 of their last 3 as well as 3 of their last 5 games. The Pirates are going to be hungry to bounce back from their close 2-1 loss in their last game and they will be trying to win this series to get ahead of the Reds in the division. Mitch Keller is starting for the Pirates in this game and he is 8-4 with a 3.36 ERA this season. He has been pitching very well in his starts this season and recently, allowing just 2 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts as well as just 1 earned run or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. He is coming off of a start which he allowed 4 earned runs in a 4-3 loss to the Cardinals, but he will be hungry to bounce back at home here as he has been much better there. He has pitched at least 6 innings in each of his last 3 home starts and has only allowed 2 earned runs total between the 3 starts. Hunter Greene is starting for the Reds in this game and he is 5-2 with a 3.61 ERA this season. He has not been awful this season, but he has been very inconsistent with the runs he has been allowing. He has not been pitching well recently either, allowing at least 2 earned runs in each of his last 3 as well as at least 4 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts. The Pirates have been slightly better at home this season and they have been the better team recently coming into this game, they will find ways to score runs on Greene with the way he has been allowing them and Keller will have a nice bounce back performance back at home where he has been very good this year. The Pirates will win this game.