The Pirates are coming into this game with no recent trend to the over in their games, but they did lose 10-5 on Wednesday and their pitching has not been great. They are going up against a Reds team that has been playing in a lot of high scoring games recently. The Reds are coming off of a 15-3 loss in their last game and they have seen 11+ runs total in 5 of their last 6 games with all 6 of those seeing at least 8 runs total. Their pitching has also been awful as they have allowed at least 7 runs in 3 of their last 4 games as well as at least 5 runs in each of those. Nick Martinez is starting for the Reds in this game and he is 9-6 with a 3.37 ERA this season. He has been pitching as a reliever for most of the season but recently he has been starting again and he has not been as good. He was good in his last 2 starts, but he has also allowed at least 4 runs in 2 of his last 4 starts, and he has been worse at home as well. He has allowed at least 4 runs in each of his last 2 as well as 4 of his last 5 home starts and he has allowed at least 3 runs in all of those as well. He also allowed 2 runs in just 3 innings against the Pirates just last month and that start was on the road where he has been better recently. The Pirates have not been scoring a lot of runs recently but they are coming off of a 3-2 win in their last game so they will have some confidence here and they are going to score runs with the way Martinez has pitched at home. The Reds bullpen has not been great recently either as they just allowed a lot of runs in their last series against the Braves. Mitch Keller is starting for the Pirates in this game and he is 11-10 with a 3.87 ERA this season. He has been struggling more in his recent starts, allowing at least 3 runs in 3 of his last 4 starts and at least 2 runs in all 4 of those, but he has also been worse on the road. He has allowed at least 4 runs in 3 of his last 4 road starts with 2 of those starts seeing him allow 7+ earned runs total. He has pitched against the Reds twice this season and was great in his home start, allowing no runs in 7 innings, but he also faced them again on the road right after that start and allowed 4 runs, 3 earned, in a little under 6 innings. The Reds have not been winning a lot of games recently with their poor pitching, but their offense is still scoring runs in these games and they are going to score runs on Keller here at home where they have been much better. Between these two teams, there will be enough runs in this game to push it over the total.