Mack is predicting that the home team should win by more than the indicated spread. Both teams are playing well this season and UC Irvine has been good on the road but they have stumbled in their last game and struggled with Dusquesne. Utah State has played well at home and this is another good matchup between two good schools but the model projects that Utah State should cover this spread being at home and this being a road and elevation game for UC Irvine.

Utah State are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home. Utah State are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.UC Irvine are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Utah State. UC Irvine are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games against Utah State. UC-Irvine is 4-14 ATS after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. Utah ST is 24-11 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Utah ST is 13-5 ATS after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons. UC Irvine are 1-7 ATS in the last three seasons after a game where they made 88% of their free throws or better. UC Irvine are 2-8 ATS in the last three seasons after a loss by 6 points or less.

Best bet: lay the points with Utah State.