This is a matchup between a younger team and an experienced team. Both teams come into this bowl game with 6-6 records so they are pretty much evenly matched but Northern Illinois is a little better on both sides of the ball and NIU has the experience and the better quaterback in this matchup. Both lost players to the portal but NIU retained more key players. NIU has a good defense and teams have found it hard to run against this defense. Arkansas State also played a much weaker schedule than NIU as the Huskies are more battle tested and will find success against a weak Red Wolves defense. This is Lombardi's last season and the team will get up for him to send him off win a bowl win. Take NIU to get the win as they excel in the underdog role.

NIU is 79-51 ATS as an underdog since 1992. Ark. ST are 0-1 ATS this season and 1-2 ATS in the last three seasons when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest. Ark. ST are 1-2 ATS this season and 5-9 ATS in the last three seasons off a road loss. NIU are 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog. NIU are 2-0 ATS in the last three seasons playing on a neutral field. Arkansas State are 3-17 SU in their last 20 games played on a Saturday when playing on the road. Northern Illinois are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when playing as the underdog.

Best bet: take the points with Northern Illinois.