The Cowboys are on the road back to back weeks in this spot. The last time the Cowboy's played in Miami was in 2015. Dallas is built to stop the pass first and if they fall behind early in a game, it is tough for them to come back in. Dak plays better in a dome environment and this is his second week playing out in the open elements where this team does not excel. If Miami wants to win this game they will have to run the ball all day and they can do it because they have the weapons in Achame and Mostert. If they lean on the run game, that is where Dallas is the weakest as they defend the pass game much better than the run game. The last few teams that beat this Dallas team, did so with their run games as they got creative with them and outsmarted the Cowboys. Dallas will not be able to respond to this strategy and Miami won't need to throw the ball in the end zone to win this game. If Miami has the lead throughout the game from beginning to end, Dallas will fold, they cannot compete. They don't really need Tyreek Hill today to win, but there are rumblings that he could play which always helps. These next two games are very important to Miami so they will be focused and dialed in in this game as it will decide their overall seeding. The naysayers will say that Miami hasn't beaten a top team this season but they have had to go on the road in bad situational spots when they played those games. This is the first top team they have played at home this season and they have the recipe to get the win today. Tua has gotten the go ahead as well to use his legs more in this game. Everything is leaning towards a Dolphins win today. This is also a look ahead spot for the Cowboys as they host the Lions next week. The last time the Dolphins beat the Cowboys was in 2003 and the last time they won in Miami was 1984. This just looks like the spot to take them today.

Dallas is 25-42 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992. Miami is 8-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Miami is 8-1 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 2 seasons. Dallas are 0-2 ATS this season as a road underdog of 3 points or less. Dallas are 0-3 ATS in games played on a grass field. Miami are 3-1 ATS this season off a division game. Miami is 2-0 ATS this season and 8-2 ATS in the last three seasons after allowing 14 points or less last game. Miami are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games. Miami are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games against an opponent in the NFC conference.

Best bet: lay the small number with Miami.