This is a lot of points to give a team that won games that they shouldn't have this season and didn't win games they should have. After half the team was gone before the season even started, Iowa State ended up playing well and landed themselves a bowl game. But that is where the good news end. They have lost their QB Hunter Decker and most of their offensive line to opt outs as well as a few on defense. Meanwhile, Memphis has their whole team present and playing in this game including their QB. This will be considered a home game for Memphis as this is in their backyard. The last time these two teams played in a bowl game, the score was 21-20. This matchup is between two evenly matched teams so getting double digits points with the underdog is where the value lies. Memphis has a real shot of winning this game as well. Iowa State doesn't really blow out teams as their games have been more of one score wins.

Iowa ST is 0-9 ATS when playing against a top-level team with a win percentage over 75% over the last 3 seasons. Memphis is 2-0 ATS this season after scoring 31 points or more in 4 straight games. Memphis is 2-0 ATS this season and 8-1 ATS all time after 4 straight games where 60 total points or more were scored. Memphis are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games. Iowa State are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played in December.

Best bet: take the points with Memphis.