The model is projecting at least 11 runs in this game. These two have played their series so far to the over and have put up a combined 24 runs in two games. Corbin hasn’t been good for Washington and they’ve lost all his starts because he’s giving up runs on a continued basis. He is too inconsistent to be counted on in this game. He is going to give up some runs to the Mets in this division game. The Mets are 9-0 to the Over in road games against division opponents this season and they are also 18-7 to the Over in road games this season. The Mets have found their offense in this series and are going to rough up Corbin. The Mets have improved in the last two weeks in hitting left-handed pitchers so they will get to Corbin. Seriano has been decent for the Mets on the mound, however, the Nationals will get to him for some runs. The Mets bullpen hasn’t been great either and they are going to be susceptible to Washington. Seriano is 6-0 to the Over this season in day games. Corbin is 2-0 to the Over this season as a home underdog of +125 to +175 too. These are two mediocre teams with questionable pitching and bullpens and this game is going to reflect that.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.