These two teams already played twice and both games went over the total. The first game was 169 points combined, while the second game totaled 186 points. The total in this game is 169 and there is still value there. Head to head, the Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two. Both teams still have the Commissioner Cup to play for and the Aces are also trying to bounce back from a brutal home loss. The Aces will want to put up as many points as they can so they will be very motivated. Las Vegas is 9-2 to the Over off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Dream with Griner back, are looking to rack up another important win, so this matchup is going to be very competitive with more offense than defense. The Mercury can get to 80 plus points because the Aces defense is very poor right now, and that is because the Aces have given up a ton of points to opposing teams this season. There is no reason why Phoenix can’t run the score up too. The Mercury are 6-0 to the Over in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning straight up record. The Aces can get help in running up the score with the addition of Chelsea Gray back in the mix on offense. Her status has been upgraded to questionable for this game and could play in this one. The Over is 6-0 in the Aces last 6 games following a ATS loss. There is value in taking the Over in this game.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.