The Mercury have won three of their last four games, losing only by 4 points to the Aces. This will be their third game at home and they have played their best there getting some of these wins. With Griner back, their offensive rating has improved immensely. They are also better on defense, especially in the paint, and play a stronger game at home where they allow less points on defense than the road. These two teams already played earlier this season without Griner and Allen in the lineup, and lost on the road 78-81 to the Liberty, but they covered the spread as -13.5 point underdogs. Vandersloot was out in that game for the Liberty, and she continues to be out in this game. Now that Griner has been named to the Olympic team, she has some pressure to show her critics why she was chosen. The Liberty are 6-8-0 against the spread in their last 14 games, while the Mercury are 9-5 against the spread in their last 14 games. The Mercury are 5-0 against the spread this season when avenging a same season loss. Head to head, this series is 5-5 against the spread, so an even split. However, the Liberty are 2-8 against the spread versus opponents in the Western Conference but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five in Phoenix. This is a game that Griner will play with a chip on her shoulder and they are going to try to take her out of the game, but Griner has proven to be a force. The Liberty are 4-8 against the spread when they are favored by 5.5 points or more, while Phoenix is 5-3 against the spread as an underdog of 5.5 points or more. This is going to be a tight game but the Phoenix will be up for it, they already played some stiff competition in their last four games, the Aces, the Lynx, the Storm, and Dallas so they are battle tested. This will be a big test for this team but they should be able to get through the Liberty’s defense this time in this rematch game.

Best bet: take Phoenix and the points.