The Phoenix Mercury are the better talented team, however, they have been terrible in their last two games defending the perimeter and the paint. They have allowed a combined total of 191 points in two games. The Phoenix haven’t been good all season on the road going 13-27 against the spread in their last 40 road games. Head to head, the Mercury are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against each other. This is a tough second road spot again for Phoenix, even with Griner and Taurasi back in the lineup, they were not effective in their last game as they still got blown out by 30 points. With the break coming up, there will be distractions on both sides mentally and it will be tough for both teams to play a full 40 minutes. Washington is the best covering team in the league so far going 16-7-1 against the spread and they have covered their last seven straight games at home. This will be a very competitive game and played with less defensive intensity from both sides so Washington will be able to make their shots and get more looks that will keep them in this game and give them a shot to win. Phoenix averages 14 turnovers per game and the Mystics can take advantage of that and convert those turnovers into some extra points. Phoenix is not a great road team and have terrible fourth quarters where they tend to fall apart. Washington seems to have the momentum on their side as they have been playing better in their last ten games, and showed some promise in their game against the Aces where they stayed in that game late before the Aces pulled away. In their last game they played against each other, Phoenix won the game by three points, a game where the Mystics were not playing as well as they are right now. That is why there is good value on the home team to cover and possibly win and get their revenge at home. Washington is 11-5 against the spread as a 4.5 point underdog or greater and are 5-0 against the spread in its last 5 games at home.

Best bet: take the points with Washington.