The Padres have won eight of their last nine games, including a late win against this Dodgers team and the Dodgers are 3-7 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Dodgers haven’t seen Cease this season and he has pitched phenomenally in the month of July, including coming off a no hitter in his last start. He is on fire and should carry that momentum into this game and should pitch deep in this spot. The Padres are hitting lefties well and they should have no issues scoring against this Dodgers team with Kershaw on the mound. Kershaw has only pitched 4 innings this season and this will be his second start and first road start. He pitched well in his 2024 debut, giving up only two earned runs, 6 hits and walked two batters as the team won his start. However, Kershaw's splits show a big difference between pitching at home versus on the road, at least last season. Last season at home his ERA was 1.58 with a 0.842 Whip, while on the road there was a significant difference to an ERA of 3.13, still good, but a WHIP of 1.23. He will be on a pitch count and won’t stay long, but the Padres can get to him for a few runs as this is a vulnerable spot for Kershaw and the Padres are hitting lefties so well. In Kershaw’s only road start last season versus the Padres, he gave up four earned runs and 2 home runs in that game. The Dodgers have struggled on the road in the last month as well, missing key pieces in their offensive lineup, and only winning two of their last nine road games. Usually bettors would fade a pitcher off a no hitter, but Cease is an experienced pitcher who should still bring that intensity to this game. The Padres have also won five of their last seven games against the Dodgers this season. At home, in this spot with a bunch of wins under their belt, the value lies with San Diego.

Best bet: take San Diego on the moneyline (ML).