Lively has pitched much better in July for Cleveland, especially at home, and the Guardians are at home where they usually dominate teams where they are 33-15 straight up. Lively has played really well in his last three starts, especially against the Phillies and he has the best bullpen in the league to back him up at home in this spot. They have faced Kremer before who has not been good for Baltimore this season, compared to last season. He’s giving up at least 3 runs and a home run per game all season. The team lost his only start against the Guardians last season where he gave up 6 runs and 3 walks in that game; Cleveland has always done well against Baltimore in the past. Baltimore is 7-13 in their last 20 games against Cleveland. There is great value in getting Cleveland at even money at home.

Best bet: take Cleveland on the moneyline (ML).