This game should see some runs, especially with Williams on the mound for Cleveland. His pitching splits are worse at home where he is sporting an ERA of 7.54. He’s off a terrible start where he got shelled and he should give up some more runs in this ball park today as batters are hitting .316 against him. Cleveland has also gone over in more games at home this season with a 37-26-5 record. Pepiot has pitched better recently but he still is susceptible on the road, and Cleveland should be able to get a few runs off of him. Pepoit's last road start did go over the total and his xFIP of 4.18 suggests some regression. This game should squeak over 7.5 as Cleveland has started to hit better on offense, averaging 5 runs per game in their last three games. The total has gone Over in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games against an opponent in the AL East division. This game should be competitive and both teams can get some runs off of both pitchers to take this game Over.

Best bet: take the Over the Total.