Texas State is a high powered offensive team and they are back at home in a good spot against an opponent in Arkansas State who struggled to put up offense and have a leaky defense. The Bobcats should go off on this team and getting less than two touchdowns is a steal. This is also a revenge game for the Bobcats who lost last season to the Red Wolves in Jonesboro 77-31 in a crushing loss. Look for the reverse here as Texas State can't afford any more losses and will be dialed into this game. Arkansas is only putting up 3.6 yards per play on the road while averaging 12.2 points per game on the road. Texas State is averaging 37 points per game at home this season. Arkansas State is 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games. Texas State are 4-1 straight up in their last 5 games at home.

Best bet: lay the points with Texas State.