This is a bit too many points for a Texans team that will be without their best WR Nico Collins. Joe Mixon might play but he’s not 100% and may get limited snaps. With the QB change for the Pats in Drake Maye who is more of a mobile quarterback and has a better arm, he should do enough on offense to cover this number. Houston is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games. New England is 7-0 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Houston. Houston is 1-4 against the spread as a road favorite of 7 points or less and they are 0-4 against the spread when playing against a terrible team with a win percentage of 25% or less. The Pats are 2-0 against the spread off of a home loss against a division rival.

Best bet: take the points with New England.