New Mexico State hasn’t played well this season since their team lost most of their production to the portal and to Vanderbilt including their quarterback Pavia. However, this team has played some teams close at home like New Mexico keeping it within 10 points, and played Liberty tough, keeping that game within one score. They also got their only win at home versus a FCS team whereas La Tech’s two wins have come from two of the worst teams in the league including a FCS team. They struggled with Tulsa while FIU beat them straight up. Sam Houston and Jacksonville State blew them out and they weren't even a factor in those games. La Tech is struggling this season and even though they are coming off a win at home coming into this game, they are really bad on the road in covering and they are 0-4 against the spread off of a win against a conference rival. NMST is 5-0 against the spread at home versus conference opponents and they are 1-0 against the spread at home as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. La Tech is 0-5 against the spread on the road versus bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points per game and they are 1-8 against the spread versus conference opponents going back to 2022. La Tech is 0-7 against the spread when they are favorites on the road going back to 2020 and they have already lost to FIU as a road favorite this season and only put up 10 points in that game while on the road. NMST should do enough to cover this spread at home where they play better.

Best bet: take the points with New Mexico State.