You would have to go back to June 7 to find the last time the Marlins were a road favorite. That was at Colorado against Kyle Kendrick, perhaps the worst starting pitcher in the National League.




Miami has the second-worst road mark in the majors. The Marlins have dropped 19 of their last 26 away games. They are missing perhaps their three top bats in injured Giancarlo Stanton (broken hand), Dee Gordon (dislocated thumb) and Martin Prado (shoulder).




So eyebrows do get raised to see the Marlins such a substantial road favorite even against the Phillies. The question is do you trust the Phillies in a pitching matchup of Jose Fernandez against Adam Morgan? Yes and no.




Fernandez is not nearly as effective on the road and Miami's offense is down without Stanton and Gordon, but I want that extra support. So my recommendation is lay added juice and take Philadelphia on the run line at plus 1 1/2 runs.




The Phillies' offense is more effective at home. They are averaging 5.4 runs in their last five games at Citizens Band Park. The Phillies also would have a winning record during their last 11 home games if given plus 1 1/2 runs.




This is the Phillies' first home game in more than two weeks. They should have a little spark coming off the break. The Marlins have lost 11 of their past 13 road matchups.




But what about Fernandez? He's looked very good in his first two starts coming back from Tommy John surgery. Both of those outings, however, came at Marlins Park. Fernandez is 14-0 at home with a 1.17 ERA. This is his first road start of 2015. Lifetime on the road, Fernandez is 4-8 with a 3.93 ERA.




Morgan is a rookie lefthander making his fourth start of the season. He didn't look good in his previous appearance facing the Dodgers on the road, but was solid during his first two starts giving up a combined three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings.




Morgan was considered the Phillies' top pitching prospect three years ago, but shoulder surgery robbed him of some of his velocity. He's rebounded to become more crafty and is highly motivated to remain in the Phillies' starting rotation. This is a big start for him.




The Marlins have lost six of the past seven times when facing a southpaw. The Phillies are very live to pull the upset here and certainly should be highly competitive given 1 1/2 runs against a weakened Marlins offense.

(Editor's note: Long-time pro Stephen Nover has his Underdog Game of the Week going today in addition to this free offering. )