Washington's defense is improved, but it is far from top level. Andrew Luck showed me enough this past Sunday that I feel confident believing he can put up the required number of points to help this total go Over. The Colts should prove to be a strong Over team all season if Luck stays healthy with a porous defense and a passing offense reliant on Luck.

The Colts are going to be passing a lot with Luck. Many of his throws are going to be short designed to move the chains because lack of a ground attack and a vulnerable offensive line that rates well below average. T.Y. Hilton is back to being a dominant force with Luck behind center and Ryan Grant is an underrated possession receiver. He fits in well with Luck as does tight end Jack Doyle.

The Redskins are a far better offensive team with a healthy Chris Thompson and Jordan Reed. Washington actually ranked No. 3 offensively last year until Thompson was lost for the season in Week 11. They plummented to 30th once he went down. Thompson provides a big-play dimension for Alex Smith, who is coming off his finest season. That was with the Chiefs, but Smith looks like a good fit with Washington. He should have no problems moving the ball at home against what could be the least talented secondary in the NFL, an inexperienced linebacking group and no feared pass rushers.

The weather forecast is calling for wind in the 15 mph range and the chance of a drizzle. That shouldn't bother either offense, though, as both are predicated on short passing.