What we have here is a unique situation. The Islanders just concluded a seven-game series with the Flyers that finished Saturday night. The Lightning, by contrast, haven't played in a week. 
I'm going to ride the Islanders' adrenaline and 3-0 record in Game 1 series against the Panthers, Capitals and Flyers at this plus price against Tampa Bay's long rest.
The Lightning are the better team, but the Islanders have the momentum to take this Game 1 especially given that Tampa Bay is likely to be highly rusty. 
The Islanders are a frustrating team for the opposition because they are defensive-minded, disciplined and well-coached. These factors are big on the Islanders getting this far, but their offense also has stepped up. The Islanders are averaging 3.38 goals since the league resumed. That figure would have ranked fourth in the league if computed out during the entire season. 
New York scored 3 or more goals in each of their seven games against the Flyers.