Anytime the Lightning are involved and the total is less than 5 1/2, I'm automatically attracted to the Over. Moreso, with the Islanders on the brink of playoff elimination where they will be forced to take chances and empty the net if trailing. 
Tampa Bay has three strong scoring lines. This has been on display because the Lightning have scored 3 or more goals in eight of their past 10 playoff games. The Islanders, who rely on defense and discipline, have yielded three or more goals to Tampa Bay in three of the four games during the series. 
Islanders goalie Semyon Varlamov could be wearing down from the grueling playoffs because his net play has considerably slipped.