Gary Patterson is a good coach, but not when it comes to covering the spread as a home favorite. TCU stunningly has failed to accomplish that 21 of the past 27 (22 percent) times in that role. I don't see the Horned Frogs changing that trend in this matchup. 
TCU has a young team and is off a huge road victory against Texas as a double-digit 'dog. So a letdown is very possible. 
Kansas State is 6-1 ATS the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Wildcats have shown they are an underrated team upsetting Texas Tech and Oklahoma during their last two games. 
The line is too high here. This could be a reaction to K-State QB Skylar Thompson getting injured last week. Thompson could be ready to go here. Even if he isn't, though, I'm fine with backup QB Will Howard, who threw for 173 yards against Texas Tech after replacing Thompson. 
The Wildcats have an intriguing weapon in 5-foot-5, 168-pound fresham all-purpose back Deuce Vaughn. He's the only player in the Big 12 to lead his team in rushing and receiving and is the only player in the country to have both 200 rushing and receiving yards. 
Some of the Horned Frogs' home field edge is reduced because of limited capacity. Only 12,000 spectators will be allowed into 46,000 Amon Carter Stadium because of the pandemic.