I had the Over when these two teams met two days ago. The final in that one was Edmonton 3, Toronto 1. I was caught off guard by how the Oilers and Maple Leafs changed their games around for that matchup. 
The Oilers basically went into a defensive shell. They were determined to prove they could play defense. Preventing goals and not feeding off Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were the Oilers' priorities in Wednesday's game. Boring, but it worked. So I don't expect the Oilers to deviate from that game plan. 
Toronto has used a defensive-heavy makeup to its roster. The Maple Leafs' offense is overrated right now averaging 2.5 goals in their last four games. Auston Matthews is their most dynamic scorer and he's questionable. Veteran Joe Thornton is out. 
The Oilers managed just 21 shots against Toronto in their Wednesday game. 
Lesson learned from the last meeting. Lesson now applied here.