Stephen Nover's NBA Friday Top Ticket
(NBA) Phoenix vs. New Orleans,
Total: 231.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Loss
This is the third meeting of the season between these two teams. The Suns won the first one, 111-86, on Dec. 29. The total on that game was 221 1/2. There were 197 points scored. The Pelicans won the second meeting. 123-101, on Feb. 3. That total was 223 and just barely got Over with 224 points scored.
Now look at the total for this game. I'm locking in at 231 1/2 - which is 7 1/2 points higher than what it was when the teams met 16 days ago.
The oddsmaker has been influenced by recent scores. The Suns lost 128-124 to the Nets on Tuesday in their last game. The Pelicans are off a 126-124 loss to the Trail Blazers two days ago. The Pelicans beat the Grizzlies, 144-113, three days ago. 
So I get why the oddsmaker has raised the Over/Under on these teams. I just don't agree with this big of a jump. 
The Suns give up the eighth-fewest points in the NBA per game at 108. They are going to be extremely motivated to clamp down defensively for the entire game after losing their concentration and blowing a big lead against the Nets. 
Stan Van Gundy has been unable to get the Pelicans to play consistent defense. New Orleans, however, is a below average but not terrible defensive club ranking 23rd giving up 114.5 points per game. The Pelicans also should have incentive to improve their defense after their previous performance.