San Diego State is an excellent defensive team. But what the Aztecs also have going is they are more up-tempo than perceived and are very effective burying 3-point shots in transition. San Diego State leads the Mountain West Conference in 3-point shooting percentage and ranks 25th in the nation hitting 38 percent from beyond the arc.
This has been instrumental in the Aztecs scoring at least 75 points in eight of their last 10 games. I see them doing that again here as UNLV ranks 317th in 3-point defense. 
The key to making this Over work, though, is UNLV contributing its share of points. The Rebels looked good during the second half against Fresno State in their last game this past Friday scoring 36 points. I think that carries over.