I like the Padres to make a run at the Dodgers in the NL West. But there are going to be spots where San Diego is overpriced. This is one of them in a pitching matchup of Caleb Smith versus Joe Musgrove. 
Smith showed potential with the Marlins and he had a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for the Diamondbacks after being traded to them last season. Smith is 2-1 lifetime versus the Padres with a 2.01 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four starts. 
Musgrove went 1-5 in eight starts with the Pirates last season. His lifetime numbers are 29-38 with a 4.33 ERA, which includes 83 starts. He might get more victories pitching for the Padres, but I consider him a lower-end starter, who should not be in this price range. 
The Diamondbacks have some underrated power. If Ketel Marte returns to form, the Diamondbacks could surprise. Marte is off to a fast start going 6-for-10 with four extra base hits, including two homers.